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ASIC Mining?

Re: HD5970 for Sale

[MENTION=12336]Landmark Computers[/MENTION], I must warn you. I was doing a lot of digging on various BTC forums last night, as of CES2013 Butterfly Labs didn't have anything to show other than an empty case with a few fans - when questioned, the guys admitted the hardware did not yet exist - video interviews are on Youtube, you can see their discomfort as they try to lie their way out of things. They also have a no refunds policy. From what I can tell, they're using money spent on "orders" (which should be called pre-orders) to try to develop an ASIC unit, each time they run low on cash they start advertising on the BTC forums to increase sales.

Hang onto your card, should BTC crash tomorrow your card is still worth something whereas an ASIC will be worth diddly-squat.

Supreme, care to back that up? Nobody else is predicting BTC to collapse.
 
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Re: HD5970 for Sale

Andy, I must warn you. I was doing a lot of digging on various BTC forums last night, as of CES2013 Butterfly Labs didn't have anything to show other than an empty case with a few fans - when questioned, the guys admitted the hardware did not yet exist - video interviews are on Youtube, you can see their discomfort as they try to lie their way out of things. They also have a no refunds policy. From what I can tell, they're using money spent on "orders" (which should be called pre-orders) to try to develop an ASIC unit, each time they run low on cash they start advertising on the BTC forums to increase sales.

Hang onto your card, should BTC crash tomorrow your card is still worth something whereas an ASIC will be worth diddly-squat.

Supreme, care to back that up? Nobody else is predicting BTC to collapse.

Links or it didn't happen.

Personally I don't think BTC will collapse, but it might not be worth a lot in future. Just like other commodities (even currencies) things change.

And when will it crash .. 5 years .. 1000 years??
 
Re: HD5970 for Sale

Andy, I must warn you. I was doing a lot of digging on various BTC forums last night, as of CES2013 Butterfly Labs didn't have anything to show other than an empty case with a few fans - when questioned, the guys admitted the hardware did not yet exist - video interviews are on Youtube, you can see their discomfort as they try to lie their way out of things. They also have a no refunds policy. From what I can tell, they're using money spent on "orders" (which should be called pre-orders) to try to develop an ASIC unit, each time they run low on cash they start advertising on the BTC forums to increase sales.

Hang onto your card, should BTC crash tomorrow your card is still worth something whereas an ASIC will be worth diddly-squat.

Supreme, care to back that up? Nobody else is predicting BTC to collapse.

BFL started shipping Jalapeno's in very limited quantities, but their power use was way of target. So they shipped them in bigger casings.

The other Alternative's is to buy avalon chips from one of the resellers and wait for Burnin to complete the board design etc. for a little DIY product
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179769.0

Or wait and see if KNCminer is legit
 
Re: HD5970 for Sale

Links or it didn't happen.

Personally I don't think BTC will collapse, but it might not be worth a lot in future. Just like other commodities (even currencies) things change.

And when will it crash .. 5 years .. 1000 years??

Most damning bit:

[video=youtube_share;5ZUPniBo5UQ]http://youtu.be/5ZUPniBo5UQ?t=4m20s[/video]

Watch from the 4:20 mark, he admits there aren't any ASICs.

4:41 he looks down and left, that's an involuntary reaction and tell-tale sign of lying.

Watch through the entire clip to see him get more and more uncomfortable, make less and less eye-contact, etc.
 
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First link is just a box, second link is a 5 GHash/s unit, not the 25 and 50 they promised. I.e the product does not yet exist.

I just tried to find a name by looking at the BFL Wiki page, there isn't one but look here:

BFL can stand for:
Bayesian Filtering Library
Big Fat Liar, 2002 comedy film starring Frankie Muniz from TV's Malcolm in the Middle, Nickelodeon's Amanda Bynes, and Paul Giamatti
Bluefaced Leicester
Body for Life, a fitness program created by Bill Phillips
Bat for Lashes, the stage name of English musician Natasha Khan.
Butterfly labs, a huge Bitcoin ASICs scam.

ROFL!

Now onto the juicy bits:

TypeFirst NameMiddleLast NameTitleOrganizationAddress
President / DirectorCHRISVLEISIDES2507 JEFFERSON KANSAS CITY, MO 64108
President / DirectorNasserGhoseiri2507 JEFFERSON KANSAS CITY, MO 64108

Source

See that name, Chris Vleisides? Well check this out:

Sonny Chris Vleisides, 39, previously of Kansas City, MO was arrested in 2007 and held two years in Italy before he was extradited to the United States. Vleisides was sentenced to 14 months in prison followed by three years supervised release after pleading to one count of mail fraud.

Source

What did he do? Have a look here:

A joint investigation involving the IRS-CID and the United States Postal Inspection Service (USPIS), revealed that from at least 1990 through July 2006, SONNY VLEISIDES, James Ray Houston, Dennis Emmett, William Cloud, Henry Walther, Scott Henry Walther, and others committed a massive international lottery scam using the following company names: Shamrock Agency, German Swiss Group, World Expert Fund, Mutual Medical Insurance Co, Old Amsterdam Trust Co, Euro American Fax Co, European Union Commission, EU American Payment Co, Global Search Network, North American Foreign Payments Services, Wor'dwide Verification Service, and others. VLEISIDES ran the scheme along with Houston and Emmett. VLEISIDES, Houston and Emmett, who were all located in Costa Rica, worked with mailing houses which, at the direction of VLEISIDES, Houston, and Emmett, sent out tens of thousands of mailings to victims in the United States, many of whom were elderly. The mailings contained false statements, half truths, and omissions, and induced the victims to participate in various international lotteries, falsely stating that if the victims participated, they were guaranteed to win or had a very good chance to win. The mailings directed the victims to send their money to Ireland, at d the Netherlands, among other locations, where William Cloud had set up addresses with commercial mail receiving agencies and individuals to forward the money, eventually, back to the United States. After receipt at the commercial mail receiving agencies, the victims' money was sent to Henry Walther, who, along with his son Scott Henry Walther, deposited the money into various bank accounts and then distributed it as directed by VLEISIDES, Houston, and Emmett. Some of the money was spent on furthering the criminal activity. Some of the money was paid out to victims in small-dollar checks that the co-schemers misrepresented to be lottery winnings. The rest of the money was paid out to the co-schemers and others for their own use. VLEISIDES and the other defendants did not buy any lottery tickets, and the vast majority of the victims lost the money they sent. The total loss from the scheme is in excess of $19 million.

An analysis was done on approximately twenty of the bank accounts established in the United States at the direction of VLEISIDES and his co-schemers. The analysis revealed, in summary, that the victims' money was first deposited into accounts established by the co-schemers at numerous banks in accounts with names that sound like official lotteries: SHAMROCK AGENCY, WORLD EXPERT, OLD AMSTERDAM, GERMAN SWISS, and EUC. (Hereinafter, accounts at this first layer will be referred to as "Deposit Accounts.") The co-schemers obtained over $19 million from tens of thousands of victims and deposited them into these accounts. After the co-schemers deposited the victims' money into the Deposit Accounts, they transferred the money to the next layer of accounts, hereinafter referred to as "Payment Accounts." These accounts were in names that included NORTH AMERICAN PAYMENT and EU PAYMENT SERVICE. From the Payment Accounts, the co-schemers wrote checks represented as winnings and sent them back to the victims. The amount of the alleged "winnings" was far less than the amount the victims sent in - for the over $19 million going into the accounts from victims, only approximately 20% was sent back to victims in the form of "winning" checks. The co-schemers transferred some of the money from the Deposit Accounts and Payment Accounts to the next layer of accounts, which will hereinafter be referred to as "Syphon Accounts." The co-schemers wrote checks (or used wire transfers) from the Lottery Accounts and the Payment Accounts to the Syphon Accounts, which were in names that included WESTERN INTERNET, BUTTERFIELD, CARNEGIE and HENRY WALTHER ATTORNEY WIRE ACCOUNT. Money from the Syphon Accounts was used to continue the scheme by paying scheme expenses, as well as to provide benefits to the co-schemers. The co-schemers also took money at each layer in the form of checks to cash, checks to themselves, or checks to the payment of personal or scheme expenses.

Extraction of affidavit for extradition warrant, available here.

How do we know they're one and the same? Here we go:

Sonny Vleisides is associated with BFL and it's the same Sonny listed in the case documents. He was involved in off shore gaming in the capacity of selling and providing software engineering to companies that did the actual offshore gaming (there is even a US patent application for the process). The industry came under attack (as we all remember) around that time, and Mr. Vleisides was caught up in the process as well as a good portion of the industry based in Costa Rica.

Although this may be cause for concern to some, the fact is that we're a robust company with 22 employees. One of them has a colorful background in offshore libertarianism. If I thought there was even the possibility of something unsavory going on within BFL, you can rest assured I would a) not be part of it and b) would let everyone know it.

The reality is, we are legitimate, we have released revolutionary products and we are going to release more revolutionary products. I was made aware of this back story prior to my employment and I evaluated it and concluded that it was immaterial to the business at hand and thus joined BFL. There was nothing hidden from me and Sonny has always answered questions and been completely open about his past, but I think we can all agree that it's not something you just announce to the world.

This post was by an employee, Chief Operating Officer Josh from the above video, of Butterfly Labs. While he has kind words about his employer he has also confirmed that his employer is the convicted mail fraudster. I guess that reflects rather poorly on him, too - although he's the one who confessed to taking ORDERS (not pre-orders) for a product which still did not exist almost a year later. Source.

Sonny/Chris Vleisides was also given probation. Take special note of his probation terms, specifically point 3:

The defendant is hereby placed on supervised release, effective immediately, for a term of three years under the following terms and conditions:
...
3. The defendant shall not engage, as whole or partial owner, employee or otherwise, in any business involving loan programs, gambling or gaming activities, telemarketing activities, investment programs or any other business involving the solicitation of funds or cold-calls to customers without the express approval of the Probation Officer prior to engagement in such employment. Further, the defendant shall provide the Probation Officer with access to any and all business records, client lists and other records pertaining to the operation of any business owned, in whole or in part, by the defendant, as directed by the Probation Officer; and

A copy of his entire probation documentation can be found here. His probation orders are dated 15 September 2010, meaning it ends 15 September 2013. By fund-raising (i.e. charging for a product which is not yet ready for sale) he is in violation of his probation orders.

So there we go, worst case scenario is we have a company running scheme (not quite pyramid or ponzi) headed by a convicted felon in violation of his probation without a functional product. If he has been granted permission for solicitation of funds by his probation officer, we have a best case scenario of a company running a scheme (not quite pyramid or ponzi) headed by a convicted felon without a functional product.

My opinion of what's happening is as follows:

Develop FPGA mining hardware
Advertise madly, possibly going into debt to get the word out there
Sell as many units as possible, deliver on promises to build reputation (failed a bit here, deliveries were beyond slow)
Start pimping upcoming ASICs
Use pre-order money to pay for advertising (it's hard finding a BTC forum which doesn't have BFL advertising) to reach greater audience
Continue delaying and promising that even BETTER hardware is coming later, take pre-orders for "upcoming" hardware
Wait a few months until you have tens of thousands of orders paid up front valued at tens of millions of dollars - possibly more
Run

So far, all of the above steps have been ticked up to and including the penultimate step in what could be one of the bigger scams of the decade.

Even IF they do deliver, would you be willing to risk your money based on the histories of those involved as well as of the company itself?
 
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Re: HD5970 for Sale

[MENTION=12336]Landmark Computers[/MENTION], I must warn you. I was doing a lot of digging on various BTC forums last night, as of CES2013 Butterfly Labs didn't have anything to show other than an empty case with a few fans - when questioned, the guys admitted the hardware did not yet exist - video interviews are on Youtube, you can see their discomfort as they try to lie their way out of things. They also have a no refunds policy. From what I can tell, they're using money spent on "orders" (which should be called pre-orders) to try to develop an ASIC unit, each time they run low on cash they start advertising on the BTC forums to increase sales.

Hang onto your card, should BTC crash tomorrow your card is still worth something whereas an ASIC will be worth diddly-squat.

Supreme, care to back that up? Nobody else is predicting BTC to collapse.

Eventually when the ASIC-miners go viral, there will be a huge increase in hash rate (this is all assuming ASIC-miners do exist). With a huge increase in hash rate in won't be long until the BTC - USD exchange rate drops dramatically. I mean the whole system is based on the fact that a rare commodity is worth a lot. As soon as it's not so rare anymore, value should drop. But after people lose interest it should pick up again. It will never die down. just collapse periodically every now and then =) That's just my opinion =)
 
Re: HD5970 for Sale

Eventually when the ASIC-miners go viral, there will be a huge increase in hash rate (this is all assuming ASIC-miners do exist). With a huge increase in hash rate in won't be long until the BTC - USD exchange rate drops dramatically. I mean the whole system is based on the fact that a rare commodity is worth a lot. As soon as it's not so rare anymore, value should drop. But after people lose interest it should pick up again. It will never die down. just collapse periodically every now and then =) That's just my opinion =)

No, when the hash-rate goes up the difficulty increases, not the price drops.
 
Correct so the people left behind without asics will just sit there and look at their .0001 bitcoins per day income ;( As soon as that happens going over to LTC
 
Let's just carry on burying this company.

[video=youtube;-eF6FSdur8k]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eF6FSdur8k[/video]

Everyone keeps asking why we only get out 3-4 per day and this is why. We have to do this manual process to each board and it's not simple. Add into this that we are human and have to take breaks and lunches etc. and hopefully you understand. So stop complaining. We only have this one machine but we plan to get in another one next week, and by the end of May we will have 4 of these machines rolling out 10-20 per week!

With over 40,000 pre-orders placed (I know someone who's pre-order number is 40,xxx and that was about a month ago, so it's probably over 50,000 already), they're looking at getting through 1,100 to 1,450 per YEAR. They already have the money from the pre-orders, so they can't "grow and expand production" - they're already pretty much there. 50 YEARS from now they might finish shipping the pre-orders.
 
hang on...forgive me if im wrong,but isnt the btc economy designed to collapse?
wont the block chain only produce a certain amount of coins?
lastly...thats some fine detective work there [MENTION=275]Oj0[/MENTION]
 
If the difficulty increases, it won't cause the price to drop, I don't understand how you could come to that conclusion?

Yes, there is a finite amount of coins, that is not a bad thing, also doesn't mean it will collapse.
 
It won't cause the price to drop, but it will cause the profitability to drop. The network is designed that no matter how much hashing power is available, a block of x number of coins will be mined every y number of minutes - these figures are predefined and set in stone. At the moment the entire network has ($power) THash/s of power of tap which is capable of mining ($no_of_coins) coins every ($time) minutes at a difficulty of ($difficulty), and at a current exchange rate of $($value)/BTC. That means every ($time) minutes, the value of coins being mined is equal to ($no_of_coins).($value). If you were to build your own farm capable of ($power)/2 THash/s, you would not be getting ($no_of_coins) coins every ($time) minutes at a value of $($value) as the difficulty would double to 2.($difficulty), doubling the power required to mine one coin.

I know that's hard to follow, but basically:

As ASICs become more popular, the difficulty increases dramatically. If you're mining 0.05BTC per day at 60 MHash/s on your graphics card and at a value of $150/BTC, you're looking at 1.5BTC/month for a total value of $225. If we look at the stats for a 60 GHash/s ASIC, we see that with 100x the power we should be looking at 100x the coins mined per day - 5 coins per day for a total of 150 coins per month valued at $22,500. Of course, coins can't be mined this quickly on a large scale because of the number of coins generated every x number of minutes being predefined. As the ASICs take over, the difficulty increases to compensate for the massive increase in hashing power on the network until we could be looking at a 100x difficulty increase which would result in an ASIC mining 0.05 BTC per day and your 600 MHash/s graphics card dropping down to 0.0005 BTC per day ($1.5 per month).

I know it's hard to follow this post, but I've used the second paragraph to try to dumb things down a bit.
 
Im trying real hard to understand the whole concept. But as per your dumbed down explanation, whats the point of creating these asic cards? Quick cash in on the hype? ( regardless of fake/fraud companies mentioned above). Even if they did exist, the value to speed ratio makes them pointless unless they don't become popular and only 10 people mining have them. How is the creator profiting from this project? His own personal stash of btc? Or huge amounts of advertising? A reserve banks tries to control the amount of money (value) in a country and the btc value is controlled by the time taken to mine a coin dependant on availability? Does the algorithm automatically detect the amount of coins mined and so slows the availability of coins down?

Sorry for all the questions but unless you've got 3 x more mining power than a lot of other people it just doesn't seem worth it.

Sent from my HTC One X using Tapatalk 2
 
Well I've ordered one. Still not sure if it as a good call. I see difficulty going way up and possibly not being worth it by the time it arrives, which is July-ish.
 
Well I've ordered one. Still not sure if it as a good call. I see difficulty going way up and possibly not being worth it by the time it arrives, which is July-ish.

July 2012, right? Just saying...
 
being worth it depends on really what you want to get out of it.

If you want to get rich quick .. probably not. If you want an extra grand here or there, than maybe. If you can afford to horde the coins even better.

If you look at the value increase over time, should there be no collapse over the next 4/5 years a coin could be worth $1000 [of course it could be worth $2] but thats a risk you have to take.
 
no new info from me
just saying what every1 knows....
years ago only cpu's were engaged in bitcoin mining
gpu mining started up, and the difficulty levels rose drastically
Sir OJ0 could even be correct with his formulation of this pseudo-crypto $currency

they talked of it stopping @
and the total number of bitcoins will top out at 21 million bitcoins.
yet
More than $1 billion worth of a digital currency known as bitcoins now circulate
on the web - Published March 29, 2013

so who started it??

a serious rival to precious metals

a blogspot that was updated on the 27th - The Monetary Future


alternatives
 
Im trying real hard to understand the whole concept. But as per your dumbed down explanation, whats the point of creating these asic cards? Quick cash in on the hype? ( regardless of fake/fraud companies mentioned above). Even if they did exist, the value to speed ratio makes them pointless unless they don't become popular and only 10 people mining have them. How is the creator profiting from this project? His own personal stash of btc? Or huge amounts of advertising? A reserve banks tries to control the amount of money (value) in a country and the btc value is controlled by the time taken to mine a coin dependant on availability? Does the algorithm automatically detect the amount of coins mined and so slows the availability of coins down?

Sorry for all the questions but unless you've got 3 x more mining power than a lot of other people it just doesn't seem worth it.

Sent from my HTC One X using Tapatalk 2

The point of creating the cards is to make money. BFL has, er, "sold" over 50,000 units. Look at the price, do the math - the cheapest one was $649. Even if they didn't sell a single 60 GHash/ 1,500 GHash/s unit, $649 * 50,000 = $32,450,000.

More than ten people "might" have them, see above.

How is the creator profiting? Again, see above. Another thing is the network is suddenly sitting on 90 THash/s, a MASSIVE increase over the last year. I don't see it possible that THAT many new people have joined or tripled their hardware, I have a theory (conspiracy theory?) which goes as follows: Maybe these units DO exist. Maybe they've already got hundreds, if not thousands, running already. They might be sitting on a huge number of ASICs which they're using to mine for themselves. Once the market crashes they start shipping them off, having made not only money from the sales but also huge sums of money from mining at the expense of others. The buyers get their units once they're worthless. Just a thought, although it's certainly a possibility.

Yes, the difficulty gets automatically adjusted to make sure that the same number of coins get mined over the same period of time regardless of the amount of power available on the network. The amount of power an individual has on the network in relation to the total power available on the network determines the percentage of coins mined that will be awarded to you.

Lastly, it's not worth it.
 
It WILL stop at 21 million coins, that's hard-coded and won't ever change.
 
being worth it depends on really what you want to get out of it.

If you want to get rich quick .. probably not. If you want an extra grand here or there, than maybe. If you can afford to horde the coins even better.

If you look at the value increase over time, should there be no collapse over the next 4/5 years a coin could be worth $1000 [of course it could be worth $2] but thats a risk you have to take.

Being worth it for me would be breaking even. Im not looking to get rich quick but if the difficulty where to raise say 50x (Which could easily happen) then we wouldnt even be making a dollar a day with the basic unit.
 
According to butterflylabs FAQ, orders now will start shipping from July. Im assuming thats this year, not last year ;)

The first date of shipment was July LAST year. I'll believe it when I see it.

Being worth it for me would be breaking even. Im not looking to get rich quick but if the difficulty where to raise say 50x (Which could easily happen) then we wouldnt even be making a dollar a day with the basic unit.

How is breaking even worth it? Just keep the money in a long term savings account and watch it grow instead of staying the same.
 
Seeing as there are so many preorders, its definitely not far-fetched to believe that they would hold back on deliveries
and mine away for a while...
 

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