Hi guys, posted this on Bitcointalk forums in regards to the 100MH/s KNC titan scrypt miner, thought I might as well post it here as well
Hi guys, just want to discuss some hard numbers with you. This is not a Asic bash, even If I dont like the centralising of it, I understand the benefits of getting in early, as I already showed interest in coming late to the party for an Asic buy, but I just want to develop some conversation around it and realistic targets.
I realise their may be errors in this post in regards to calculations and projected figures, but its basically a hypothetical situation extrapolated from current data.
If there are 2500 of these units KNC are going to add over 250000MH/s to the current network alone. To put it in perspective, the current network is less than the amount this ONE set of mining equipment can provide, not to mention the addition of the rest of the proposed mining manufacturers.
If the difficulty keeps increasing at a moderate 3% up until the pre-order date of delivery then the difficulty when the miner arrives (no delay) means you are mining at a difficulty of 16k in around July/August at the earliest.
Now the network/difficulty rate adjustment seems to be that there is 1000 points of difficulty per ~30mh/s. Just did some quick calculations about diff adjustments and total network hashrate for a few spot points over time and it seems to stick to around 30Mhs (eg December 30 2013: diff was 3168 and network hash rate was 90697 = roughly 30Mhs per 1000, March 09 2014: diff 4738 net hash is 135660 ~28Mhs per 1000.
Now the point I am making is that when the Titans eventually start coming online around the world the difficulty (based on current projections) is going to be somewhere around 16k in July/August sometime, extrapolate that to Hash rate and we get ~480000 Mhs.
Next add the combined potential hash rates from Titan's and we have an extra 250000Mhs pouring into the market for a total of ~730000Mhs. You may get the Titan earlier, but the difficulty will be in the region of 24333 by the time all Titans are online and adding to the network. Based on that one would only make roughly 4 LTC a day once the network has adjusted for the massive influx of hash rate.Now I have no idea how much the hash rate will increase after this massive influx and what the result will be for the difficulty, but at the best scenario presented within this context I have typed out the Titan will make $2000 a month or less, and as we all know, this will steadily drop off as hash and difficulty inevitably increase. The one saving grace may be if the price of LTC doubles or even triples, but even that means only $3700 or less after one month. Tripled the price? You would make back half or less in a month.
Now I know these numbers are possibly worst case scenarios and that the hash rate might be wildly different, although I actually suspect I have been quite conservative in my calculations as this scenario only deals with the Titan introducing its hash rate, never mind the gridseed miners, Fibonacci, Zeus and Alpha.
The point is if the price of LTC does not increase rapidly or even before the impact then its a pretty big risk at current trajectory.
Discuss?
Hi guys, just want to discuss some hard numbers with you. This is not a Asic bash, even If I dont like the centralising of it, I understand the benefits of getting in early, as I already showed interest in coming late to the party for an Asic buy, but I just want to develop some conversation around it and realistic targets.
I realise their may be errors in this post in regards to calculations and projected figures, but its basically a hypothetical situation extrapolated from current data.
If there are 2500 of these units KNC are going to add over 250000MH/s to the current network alone. To put it in perspective, the current network is less than the amount this ONE set of mining equipment can provide, not to mention the addition of the rest of the proposed mining manufacturers.
If the difficulty keeps increasing at a moderate 3% up until the pre-order date of delivery then the difficulty when the miner arrives (no delay) means you are mining at a difficulty of 16k in around July/August at the earliest.
Now the network/difficulty rate adjustment seems to be that there is 1000 points of difficulty per ~30mh/s. Just did some quick calculations about diff adjustments and total network hashrate for a few spot points over time and it seems to stick to around 30Mhs (eg December 30 2013: diff was 3168 and network hash rate was 90697 = roughly 30Mhs per 1000, March 09 2014: diff 4738 net hash is 135660 ~28Mhs per 1000.
Now the point I am making is that when the Titans eventually start coming online around the world the difficulty (based on current projections) is going to be somewhere around 16k in July/August sometime, extrapolate that to Hash rate and we get ~480000 Mhs.
Next add the combined potential hash rates from Titan's and we have an extra 250000Mhs pouring into the market for a total of ~730000Mhs. You may get the Titan earlier, but the difficulty will be in the region of 24333 by the time all Titans are online and adding to the network. Based on that one would only make roughly 4 LTC a day once the network has adjusted for the massive influx of hash rate.Now I have no idea how much the hash rate will increase after this massive influx and what the result will be for the difficulty, but at the best scenario presented within this context I have typed out the Titan will make $2000 a month or less, and as we all know, this will steadily drop off as hash and difficulty inevitably increase. The one saving grace may be if the price of LTC doubles or even triples, but even that means only $3700 or less after one month. Tripled the price? You would make back half or less in a month.
Now I know these numbers are possibly worst case scenarios and that the hash rate might be wildly different, although I actually suspect I have been quite conservative in my calculations as this scenario only deals with the Titan introducing its hash rate, never mind the gridseed miners, Fibonacci, Zeus and Alpha.
The point is if the price of LTC does not increase rapidly or even before the impact then its a pretty big risk at current trajectory.
Discuss?
? I'm not saying I want (or can afford) to get one, just want to discuss why or if people should
